Upcoming Events

Fri, Mar 6 … 3x3 Individual Basketball Tournament, 9th Boys

Fri, Mar 13 … 3x3 Individual Basketball Tournament, 9th Boys

Sundays, Apr 12 - May 19 … Bubble Up 3x3 League, 3rd-10th

Bubble Up 3x3 League

Our biggest event every year - our Bubble up 3x3 league will include 3rd-10th grade boys and 3rd-8th grade girls. The league will run on Sundays, April 12 - May 19. Once again, it will use our Flex format where you register and pay for only the weekends you want. Details will be posted soon. However, for those who already know they want to sign up, click here. The registration form does include some details and allows for an early registration discount.

TTI Memberships

The 2015 Spring-Summer membership program will be posted soon. Learn more about TTI Memberships here.

Monthly Blog: Why Everyone Falls for the Hot Hand Myth

You hear people say it all the time. Coaches will change their entire strategies mid-game because of it. One player’s hot, and another’s not. “Feed the hot hand” is a common mantra. Why do so many people fall for this myth when it has been repeatedly refuted study after study? I have asked a lot of believers and they will say the studies are wrong - they have personally experienced this phenomena many times and know it’s true.

Instead of focusing on proving or disproving the hot hand myth, I’m going to look at why people believe it in the first place. To start, one has to understand that the human brain largely functions with patterns. From an early age we learn through pattern recognition, whether it be sound patterns, visual patterns, or otherwise. Patterns is what leads to stereotypes and generalities. Usually we get them right, but every so often we get them wrong (think racism). There are entire industries that make fortunes because people “see” patterns that don’t exist (stock brokers and Vegas, for example). One of the reasons is because we see historical data and assume it’s a predictable pattern when it is not. That is why the SEC requires many investments to include a disclaimer that says “past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

Here’s the deal though … when it comes to the “hot hand,” it feels like we can predict future results. The problem is - it’s not true. Let’s say we have a player who’s a 33% 3-point shooter. The kid is hot and has made three in a row. Now we “feed” him. If he misses the next one, he’s typically still considered hot as long as he makes the second one (I always find this funny, but it’s definitely the case). The odds of him making one of those two is 56%. So, odds are fans will still be exclaiming “that kid’s hot” and the coach will keep yelling “feed the hot hand.” In their mind, they called it right.

Now, let’s say the same player misses three in a row. The coach wants to tell him to stop shooting, but he just read this blog and decides to let him shoot one more time. What’s the odds the coach gut feeling (that he’s cold) will be “proven” correct and the player misses? Well, he’s a 33% shooter, so there’s a 67% chance the player is going to miss. In fact, there’s a 44% chance he’s going to miss the next two. In fact, odd are 89% that he’s going to miss at least one of the next two. If he misses just one of those two, every myth believer will once again be confirmed. This kid’s cold.

So let’s review … there’s a 56% chance the player is going to “prove” he’s hot. And there’s an 89% chance he’s going to “prove” he’s not. Either way, everyone who believes the hot hand myth has their belief confirmed. And when it goes the other way, there are plenty of explanations: he’s found his rhythm, he’s gone cold, we shouldn’t have taken him out of the game for a few minutes, etc.

In the end though … the fact is, the odds of making that next shot is still 33%.


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